It's Time for Some Real Talk. How Republicans Grab Statehouses.

Today, many Democrats are focused on the happenings in Virginia, Houston & Kentucky. For those that receive DCCC emails, you have of course already received the messages of "We are losers" "Republicans Win" and so on, where they somehow bring in the Mississippi race, which was never even contested.

Democrats nationwide, however, can look at great victories, especially in Pennsylvania, but for most of us, the focus will again be: "what happened".

Now is the time for a very frank discussion, one which was led off this morning by another DailyKos diarist about the need to rebuild a fifty state strategy.

But now is time for some frank talk about the way in which Democrats run, organize, plan and work campaigns. I hear too often "Don't talk about this in public!" "Who says this outloud!" After almost two decades of that logic, it's time to get very real about the current realities that face Democratic campaigns - and why Republicans do better than we expect at the state level.

I believe most individuals work for the causes they believe in as they know best. Growing up in a very conservative household, I had the joys of meeting politicians early and often, all of them pretty conservative.

For about five years, I worked with some of the most conservative voices in the nation as they shared their thoughts, strategies and goals. What is the biggest goal that all of them had? It was the capturing of the statehouse.

In 2001, "Conservative Networks" were formed in several states which we designed to look at a long term way to capture, control, and handle statehouses.

For people who've attended any event I've spoken at anywhere, you know this makes a big part of my pitch to Democratic groups: let's talk frankly about what Republicans do well, and lets begin to actually try and fix what we aren't doing.

Democrats keep waiting for their ship to come in

In 2002, a Republican running for office sent an email to me which read:

I'm not worried about the poll. If we're within 4 we win. Democrats are good about picking up the phone and saying they will vote and not showing up. They keep waiting for their ship to come in, and it never does.

The candidate in this race was written off by several because people had told me a Republican wouldn't win that seat. They did. Their logic was sound and so was their gameplan. What they knew that Democrats took for granted was that their persistent, 18 month campaign which started long before the election and permeated news media (local conservative talk), churches and elsewhere was setting many of their voters in stone.

As a democratic campaign manager put it to me in 2012:

Republican voters would walk across broken glass and burning coals to vote for their candidates. Democrats gripe about 'pinching their nose' and they turn up to vote as an inconvenience when they have the time and good TV isn't on.

We see it here on DailyKos as well. Look at how many Democrats voice the "I'll hold my nose and vote for XYZ" or "I won't vote for this (D)".  

Simply put: Republicans fall in line, Democrats either fall in love or are unmotivated early.

Republicans have taken this nationalized thought and built it into local races. Democrats, on the other hand, have run state races in a way that makes me think of PoliSci text books, great in theory not so great on the ground.

What really makes the difference?

Too many Democrats believe that being right on an issue is all that matters.

Your opponent believes that the earth is flat. You point out that your opponent is a lunatic, obviously, the earth isn't flat.

If your opponent turns out more people who believe that the earth is flat than you turn out individuals who understand it is not, the fact that he is technically wrong is meaningless. You still lost.

Democrats focus on Messianic campaigns and figureheads rather than local races.

This should be so obvious and yet, we do not take it seriously. Democrats wait for their candidate from on high to run for President or Governor to lift all candidates below them. Republicans, meanwhile, work on candidates at the smallest level, from city councils to state house to make sure they have an impact on policy on all levels to groom their candidates.

How does this pay off? It means that even in red states, where Democratic candidates may not prevail, Republicans hold onto seats because of minimal contest at the local level.

In 2000, Barbara Olson, conservative pundit toured the nation talking about the list of conservative complaints at the time. Speaking to an audience in Kansas City, she told the waiting crowd this:

Whether it is city government or state government, Republicans trust their neighbors more than DC. That's why I came to Missouri tonight. I'm confident Bush is going to win the election, but I'm telling you today that it doesn't matter unless we work tirelessly to take back our statehouses.

David Kennsinger, the braintrust behind the Kansas Republican work, spoke to the Johnson County Republican Party, and years later he discussed the reality of the 2012 election.

What he makes clear is this: Republicans put their focus on longterm trends at the state level, and how the Republican work at the state level has worked to permanently change election results.

Democratic response? Avoid, evade, don't discuss, and no local level plan. No matter what you think of Kennsinger, I'd encourage you strongly to listen through his speech to Republicans and realize that more than a decade later, he is pointing out that the work people such as Barbara Olson called for in 2000 was being fulfilled. Republicans had come to near complete dominance in the statehouse - because they had convinced Republican voters THOSE were the elections that mattered most. No rainy days, no future elections, just: let's control the statehouse, and we can insulate ourselves from anything that happens in DC.

So, I'm going to steal someone's words - and they are Republican words, but we need to consider them.

We are building a longterm wall in this state that makes it prohibitive to challenge us. The less ground we fight to protect, the harder and harder it is for us to lose.

When Rich Nadler, the cranky conservative spoke those words to a Republican crowd in Jackson County, Missouri in 1999, he made clear the Republican path for success. Democrats, rather than respond with direct challenges in as many locations as possible contracted, became meek, and waited for the ship to come in.

Well, news for Democrats nationwide: there is no guarantee that youth vote, that minority vote, that any vote will vote for a Democratic candidate if you don't give them reason to turn out. No, that doesn't mean they become Republican voters; but as you saw last night in Kentucky and Houston, it means that just because you are right doesn't mean you win.

Are we prepared to do the real, on the ground work that creates opportunities for victory? Are we committed to "play nice" all of the time and not run campaigns we see as rough? Do we want to not throw punches, put on a fight and challenge Republicans who serve in trend democratic districts because they are "moderate enough"?

The longer Democrats continue to play into the Republican gameplan, the worse it gets.

So, are we ready to say, now, let's do things differently?

Let's focus local. Our local counties, cities, statehouse. Longterm results come from making an impact where people feel it most directly.

3:25 PM PT: Update Small update. Some read into this and seemingly reach the conclusion I'm talking about "Democrats" in a way of the DNC/DCCC or some national race. When I say "Democrats" here I'm referring to individuals, people in their local cities, counties, and house districts. People in DC and elsewhere can't help you find people to run for your state house. They aren't going to identify the next state senator you need to run; they don't have the resources to fight for your school board or district attorney. But all of those positions make a significant impact in the culture of your community. And so when I say: "Democrats" I'm talking about the registered "D" in those communities who have to start saying: if no one is running, what about me? If I know someone who should run, maybe I should encourage them to. Maybe I should donate some money to my local candidate rather than spend it all on a presidential race.

That's all. I'm just adding this because a lot of the commentary loops in national forces and while that may be a different issue, this one is a lot closer to home.